|
Sail: Weather links: Stormwatch: La
Nina: Profiles: Surf: Sky: Polar: Ocean: Fire: Drought: Weatherfacts: Books: Products: |
Into the Southern Ocean The leading cats in The Race have pushed through the toughest South Atlantic high seen in ocean racing for a long time. Now ... Will it be steady westerlies to Kerguelen and beyond, or will these tough sailors do battle with ridges of high pressure and more variable winds? January 17, 2001 The South Atlantic High has been foremost in the minds of leading skippers in both The Race and the Vendee Globe this week. Right now Michael Desjoyeaux, leading the Vendee and the three Giles Ollier-designed cats battling for leadership in the Race share the same corner of the same weather system in the south west Atlantic. How's that for timing! For skippers in The Race the South Atlantic has proved a difficult obstacle, as a band of high pressure stretched from Uruguay to Namibia. Within this band were zones of windless and almost windless conditions. Speeds of under four knots - ten times less than these cats are capable of - were not uncommon. Now it's all eyes on the Southern Ocean. Will steady westerly winds blow these multihulls all the way past Kerguelen and beyond, or will ridges of high pressure sneak down from the South Atlantic and Indian Ocean and give these talented sailors more cause for pause. Throughout the Vendee Globe, leading skippers found the Southern Ocean dominated by slow moving depressions separated by ridges of high pressure. The speed of these systems was nothing like those of previous races. The Southern Ocean showed a kinder, gentler face - much to the frustration of those caught in zones of moderate and variable winds. Such conditions for The Race might prove advantageous, if the cats have enough speed to leap from one weather system to another. If, on the other hand, westerly winds fill in for two thousand miles - as happened to Desjoyeaux on his approach to the horn - will these big multihulls survive the strain? Certainly Innovation Explorer has cause for concern: Their reaching genoa, has started to delaminate - the mylar film holding the sail's structural fibres in place, is peeling apart. TeamAdventure should also be worried: Their mainsail is made from Cuben fibre - just like Playstation's, and that boat's high-tech sail lasted just two days in the Mediterranean. The crew of Playstation loaded their two-year main at Gibralter and since then the stitching has literally been rotting away. Now, coupled with daggerboard damage, the biggest cat in The Race has retired, leaving the three Gilles Ollier cats to run further and further from Warta Polpharma and Team Legato - provided these new and untested boats don't fall apart! © weather-wise.com 2001 Fleet positions Club Med (blue line), furthest south and in the lead, looks to reach the north-west winds ahead of westerly winds first. Note how Team Adventure (orange line) has headed east instead of south. Perhaps they are concerned at the forecast - calling for strengthening north-west winds ahead of a frontal change. By staying to the north, maybe they will have less stress on their unproven Cuben fibre sails? Innovation Explorer, who has also reported delamination in its reaching sail, continues to lag behind. Picture courtesy of Virtual Spectator.
Five day wind forecast for the
Atlantic
Image courtesy of NOAA. This four day forecast from January 16 shows winds increasing from the north west just as the leading cats in The Race reach the 40th parallel. Will they be able to stay with this frontal system - the product of a fast-moving low predicted to develop north-east of the Falklands on January 19?
Five day pressure forecast for the
Southern Ocean Image courtesy of COLA. This four day forecast, from January 17, corresponds with NOAA's model above. But notice how a new low forms on the last day, January 21, again east of the Falklands. The result of this new low, in combination with another to the east, is a continuous band of westerly winds north of about 45 degrees - conditions enjoyed by the leader of the Vendee Globe on his approach to Cape Horn. Will this set the stage for a steady ride to the Kerguelen Islands and beyond? Much will depend on how well the big cats can keep up with fast moving Southern Ocean Weather, and whether ridges of high pressure can push into this predicted westerly wind band. 48 hour forecast for the Southern
Ocean Image courtesy of University of Cape Town. This image - using the Medium Range Forecasting model from the US NCEP - shows a new low pushing in from the west, and creating strengthening north-west winds almost to 35 degrees south. This forecast will certainly send the leading Ollier-designed cats into the Southern Ocean with a rush. But will they stand up to the pressure?
More great reading: Catch up on all the past action in our race archive. Here it from the horse's mouth at race headquarters. Follow the action between the world's toughest solo skippers in the Vendee Globe. Michel Desjoyeaux's home page: Ellen MacArthur (Kingfisher) : Re-live the Sydney to Hobart yacht race! Break ice in the Ross Sea!
|
