Fog and lighter winds over the Grand Banks

Fog-bound on the Grand Banks

Newfoundland high pressure cell has a calming effect on sailors while the Bermuda High drives warm air over a cold Labrador current. The result? A real pea-souper!

June 12, day 8.

Winds are easing as we speak - not so much from the effect of the cloud band we talked about yesterday, but from a high pressure cell building over Newfoundland in the wake of that low off the Labrador coast.

It seems the Labrador low, which had hung around the place for days, didn't have much punch down on the surface. Sure, there was enough north-west air flow in the wake of its easterly advance to shake the monohull fleet up again (they must be used to washing machine conditions by now!) but not enough to create a wind they could count on. Instead, a bubble of high pressure moved over the region yesterday and looks like settling in for the next 24 hours or so.

Certainly, the cloud band we talked about yesterday is helping to keep things in place. It is essentially a long trough of low pressure, highlighting the path of the jet stream, separating high pressure north and south. And, as long as it stays in place, conditions will stagnate. Meanwhile, the low at its northern extreme is now moving toward the British Isles and is beginning to develop some strength. Those at the back of the fleet will no doubt dread more cold north-westerlies.

To get a better idea of what is going on, click on this infra-red movie, showing the path of the cloud band, taken every hour, for 48 hours during June 10-12. It really shows how fast the jet steam is moving at the moment! If you view this movie repeatedly, you will begin to see the high pressure area filling in over Newfoundland in the wake of the Labrador low. The large windless area of the Bermuda/Azores high is also clear below the cloud band

Keep an eye out for new developments ...

What we can look for, is the development of any low pressure cells along this band, particularly as this moist stream of air leaves the US coast. If a low does develop, the fleet should benefit from tailwinds, as they would be located on its northern edge.

Meanwhile, underneath this cloud band is a strong band of high pressure stretching right across the Atlantic. The warm air circulating clockwise around it is drifting right over the cold Labrador current as it flows out of the Davis Strait, around Newfoundland on onto the Grand Banks. The result? Thick fog, and plenty of it.

The real challenge for our heroes at this moment, is keeping it all together under stressful conditions. Lack of sleep and the fatigue associated with days of upwind sailing now combine with fog, light airs, the very real threat of icebergs and shipping traffic. Just navigating is enough, let alone making decisions on race tactics. Beware those hallucinations folks!

This composite cloud/pressure map courtesy of Intellicast, shows the long wave trough, or cloud band, extending from west to east. As the low at its north eastern end begins to move towards Europe, this band is moving slowly south, leaving fleet front runners in increasingly lighter winds underneath a bubble of high pressure. To the south of the cloud band is an enormous area of high pressure extending from continent to continent.

Marine forecast for the Grand Banks:

NORTHERN GRAND BANKS. WINDS NORTHERLY 15 KNOTS DIMINISHING TO LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 TUESDAY EVENING. FOG PATCHES. VISIBILITY POOR IN FOG. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE.

SOUTHEASTERN GRAND BANKS SOUTHWESTERN GRAND BANKS. WINDS NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 KNOTS INCREASING TO NORTHEAST 15 TO 25 TUESDAY EVENING. FOG PATCHES. OCCASIONAL SHOWERS DEVELOPING ON TUESDAY. VISIBILITY POOR IN FOG AND FAIR IN SHOWERS. LITTLE TEMPERATURE CHANGE.

Team Kingfisher and Ellen MacArthur report:

DISTANCE TO GO FOR LEADING MONO : 1358 miles
CONDITIONS : COLD AND DAMP, LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...

FORECAST :

THE FLEET EXITED THE INFLUENCE OF THE LAST DEPRESSION VERY ABRUPTLY, AND ARE NOW CROSSING A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH LIGHT VARIABLE WINDS. AT THE OTHER SIDE OF THE RIDGE THERE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING
AND TRACKING EAST. THE SKIPPER TO TOUCH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FIRST COULD GET AWAY.

POSITIONS 0744GMT MONDAY
1. KINGFISHER 1358
2. SILL + 15
3. TG4 + 89
4. WHIRLPOOL + 90
5. PRB + 107
6. FILA + 110

* MacArthur (KINGFISHER) finds the going tough - this time in light and
variable winds
* TG4 moves in to third, with WHIRLPOOL on a real comeback
* PRB ripped mainsail during a 50 knot squall, repairable but he's slowed
up.
* Difficult 36 hours ahead with light shifty conditions as they monohulls
approach the ICE-ZONE
* EURE ET LOIRE (Joyon) maintains 60 mile lead over Alain Gautier (FONCIA)
* For updates during the day http://www.kingfisherchallenges.com
* 3D animation of the race, weather and commentary for free at
http://www.virtualspectator.com

Bilou's (SILL) only comment on the night was "It was hard, it was hard!".
This time not because of icy 40 knot headwinds, but because the fleet popped
out the strong winds and in to light and extremely variable breeze. Tough,
because the instability means the skippers must continuously sail change and
trim to maintain any speed at all. Not good for sleep or life onboard!

MichDesj (PRB) had it tough though in the final hours of the last storm as
he mainsail was torn along a 3 metre length just below the 3rd reef. He
thinks it is repairable, but has had to sail south to get to calmer weather
to do it. He is now 110 miles from the leaders.

Catherine Chabaud on WHIRLPOOL has pulled back 80 miles in just two days, benefiting from a more southerly option. She is now just 0.5 of mile behind Mike Golding on distance to finish, but still holding a good southerly
position.

Some of the skippers are starting to feel the fatigue. Franck Cammas
(GROUPAMA) commented on the hallucinations he was having, with a second person onboard. He refused to comment on whether it was man or woman that was apparently steering the boat for him!

Brief words from Ellen this morning :

"Its really frustrating. In the past 4 hours I've had every combination of
sails up, and now the wind is shifting by up to 50 degrees, and from 8 to 16
knots. It doesn't get much harder in terms of keeping the boat going."

Emma Richards (PINDAR) still leads Class 2 to maintain the British female
duo at the front, but now only by 40 miles as the Italian Andrew Garcia
closes in. She lost the wind instruments from the top of the mast last
night, so its back to basics onboard PINDAR. Alex Thomson is maintaining his third place, trailing Emma by 87 miles.

Race history:

We have a full archive of daily weather notes for the Europe 1 New Man single-handed trans-Atlantic race, beginning June 4, 2000, from Plymouth, England.


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