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Weather router Jean-Yves Bernot talks tactics

Which way to go in the TRANSAT?

Ellen MacArthur  and Kingfisher learn the ropes

Roger Badham of team 
Club Med 
 talks about routing

Sail downwind in the Southern Ocean 

 

Leaders confront lighter winds ahead of NW change

Details count in these conditions


June 10, day 6.

Already race leaders have left behind heavy westerly winds and entered a region of high cloud, gentle southerly winds and fog. They are under a great cloud band connecting the turbulent Gulf of Mexico with a low pressure cell east of Newfoundland. No storm systems have yet materialised out of this cloud band, so it might be a case of careful sailing to get through this area of light southerly winds as quick as possible before picking up prevailing south westerlies on the other side.

For new race leader Frank Cammas, aboard Groupama, this was just the case. He navigated the lighter winds successfully and took the top spot.


The image above shows wind direction just above the sea surface. Brown arrows represent 800-900hpa and yellow and green ones a little higher. Blue arrows represent winds at the surface greater than 34knots.  As you can see, westerlies are the main dish on the table for the rear guard of the TRANSAT fleet, located to the east of Newfoundland.  Race leaders, meanwhile, are are negotiating an area of lighter winds directly under the cloud band.

Image courtesy of Tropical Cyclones group, 
Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies
University of Wisconsin-Madison.


This composite cloud/pressure map shows a low forming within the cloud band to the east of Newfoundland. If skippers find themselves above this low they may benefit from tailwinds. If they are caught to the south west, they may find themselves in a washing machine again. Leading multihull skippers however, will have navigated through this area before any low develops, and as Alain Gautier (Foncia) commented yesterday, 10 knots of wind is all that is needed to make the Open 60 trimarans go their quickest.


This composite image, courtesy of Intellicast, shows the cloud band migrating to the north east. Red and yellow areas within the cloud identify cold cloud tops, which means rain. Underneath this cloud band are lighter winds from the south and fog. Race leaders will have to negotiate these relative calms carefully to avoid losing their place in the field. Beyond the cloud band are prevailing south west winds which means more upwind sailing!

Race headquarters comments:

Groupama in the fog  and calm ... But out in front!

Still in the lead of the Europe 1 New Man Star, Franck Cammas (Groupama) is sailing through fog and is nearing the iceberg zone. We are all a bit apprehensive especially with this fog. It became very cold this morning and in preparation I got a fair bit of sleep last night. Moral is everything." Modest of his surgence from 4th to 1st, Cammas still admits that: "The others are right behind now and so it¹s as if we are neck and neck really."

This pressure map from June 9 shows race leaders about to entered a region of lighter winds. Lines close together indicate windy conditions, lines far apart indicate calmer weather.

Image courtesy of Europe1 New Man Star.

more ...

Giovanni Soldini admits south was wrong

"Always the optimist, the Italian Giovanni Soldini (Fila) admitted that his option south has not paid. His boat has come out of these depressions unscathed, except for his staysail pad-eye breaking, which he has a hard time trying to repair. Soldini may be going a little more downwind, but... "The wind is steady, lessening a little, but I am not happy with the heading! I think that a lot will change between the next depression and Newfoundland."

More ...

Catherine Chabaud falls in love again ...
"'At last, sunshine!' exclaimed Catherine Chabaud (Whirlpool) in the radio chat. "I have rediscovered my love of actually sailing this yacht, rather than just sitting in a washing machine…' Catherine Chabaud lost 5 hours repairing her Solent (jib sail) which had unfurled by itself and would not furl back in when the wind strengthened. 'All the bolts came off and I had to tailor some replacements using the saw to make them the right size, then rehoist the furler with the sail attached'. Result: Catherine Chabaud has got into 9th place and her Solent is slightly damaged.

More ...


Ellen MacArthur and team Kingfisher comments:

June 10:

"Lalou Roucayrol (BANQUE POPULAIRE) capsized during the night, at 0530 GMT. Position 45 38 N, 38 48 W. Skipper safe, but inside the upturned multihull, 600 miles from Newfoundland. Lalou was inside when he heard a large 'crack' in his brand new 60 foot machine; as he rushed on deck he saw that the leeward float had partly broken away and under water. He tried to dump the mainsheet, but it was too late, the boat capsized to180 degrees. He found himself in the water under the nets, pitch black, freezing cold. As quickly as he could he managed to locate the upturned cockpit and climbed inside, which is where he remains. He is ok, with a survival suit on. A team will leave from Newfoundland is on its way to recover the boat and skipper.

"This is not the first time these Formula 1 racing trimarans have capsized,
although it appears this time to be a structural failure rather than the
skipper pushing beyond his limit. As in F1 motor racing, the skippers are
sailing close to the limits all the time, and they are very aware that this
can happen. The safety systems in place are good, as in this case where the
skipper succeeded to get back inside, and manage to communicate by MiniM
satellite phone back to land to explain his predicament. At this time no
outside assistance has been requested from the rescue services."
------

MONOHULL NEWS :

Ellen : "MISSED THE SHIFT, LUCKY TO BE IN TOUCH STILL...."

"DISTANCE TO GO : 1712 miles.

"CONDITIONS : 12 - 16 KNOTS, STILL UPWIND OF COURSE. NW SHIFT FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE NIGHT, SW SHOULD NOW FILL IN AGAIN. FOG, DRIZZLE, NOT VERY WARM!

"FORECAST : WIND FILL AGAIN FROM SW. 24 HOURS DOWN THE TRACK A NEW DEPRESSION APPROACHING WITH AN INTENSIFYING COLD FRONT WITH MORE BREEZE. WILL COINCIDE WITH THE APPROACH OF THE ICEBERGS...A FIELD OF ICE THAT WILL BE HARD TO AVOID."

June 9: 
"CONDITIONS : UPWIND, UNCOMFORTABLE AND WET, 25 - 33 KNOTS FROM WEST, DIFFICULT SEA. FORECAST : MORE OF THE SAME, TACTICAL DECISION OF WHETHER TO HEAD FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE HIGH TO GET A POSSIBLE SHIFT TO THE SW, OR MAKE MAXIMUM GROUND TO WEST.

"We will never know on land the full extent of the stress, physical and mental, suffered by the soloists - or the amount of action going on minute by minute out there. We can only imagine. For 6 days now the fleet have been beating their brains out in tough conditions, classic for the Transat Anglaise as the French call it.

"Early morning conversation with Ellen revealed the stress she is feeling ...'the pressure of being out near the front is really getting to me. I've spent 2 hours studying the latest weather and have convinced myself several times to go different ways. I've now tacked on a small shift, and am now making close to the direct route - contrary though to a strategy to go south closer to the high pressure. I'm certainly learning how hard it is to make these decisions when I'm tired, don't have all the information, and I'm alone. Another steep learning curve for me. Just hope I make the right choice. Going to see what the other positions are at the next poll and see if I need to go back to cover them'.

"Another English female skipper, Emma Richards (PINDAR) is battling for the lead in Class 2 with Italian Andrea Gancia. Emma is sailing Pete Goss' old 50, the same boat that Ellen did the Route du Rhum in in 1998. Not so far behind in Class 2 is Alex Thomson, and the race is certainly still on. To read Alex's amazing diary of dramas of the past few days, go to http://www.offshorechallenges.com

In the multihulls it is EURE ET LOIR that leads from FONCIA (Alain Gautier).


Jean-Yves Bernot comments on race conditions
"Several icebergs are roaming around North of 41° N and between 43° W & 55° W. They have come down further South this year and so the skippers will be glued to their radar screens. The low visibilty with SW winds should lift this afternoon when the winds from the North West arrive. The Gulf stream current of 1.5 knots flowing towards Europe South of 41° North. This current won’t affect the most Northerly boats.

"The wind should rapidly come back again from the South West at 25 – 30 knots, with 30 knots this morning blowing on the monohulls as they press on upwind in the swell (3 – 4m). The multihulls will encounter winds in the range of 25 knots from West to SW.


"On Sunday, the depression forming over the Labrador coast advances to the Atlantic and its cold front will come down on the fleet during the day.
For the multihulls, a Westerly 25 knot wind is forecast with 30 – 35 knots with the passing of the front, then a NW 20 knot breeze, with squalls which will lessen to 15 knots in the day.


"For the monohulls, the games continue: a West to South West 25 – 30 knot wind, gusting 35…the cold front will reach the fleet over the night of 11th and 12th June. Squalls of 30-35 knots, then a NW wind will come across quickly next Monday. In the days after these, a high pressure system will follow the depression through 48° N. The conditions should become better for all then."

Read our interview with Jean-Yves as he talks Atlantic tactics.


Race history: 

We have a full archive of daily weather notes for the Europe 1 New Man single-handed trans-Atlantic race, beginning June 4, 2000, from Plymouth, England.

 

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