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The first four days animated!

Weather router Jean-Yves Bernot talks tactics

Which way to go in the TRANSAT?

Ellen MacArthur  and Kingfisher learn the ropes

Roger Badham of team 
Club Med 
 talks about routing

Sail downwind in the Southern Ocean 

 

Francis Joyon breaks 12 year TRANSAT record

Spectacular finish as top three trimarans due to arrive in Newport within 50 miles miles of each other 

June 14, day 10.

There was much to gain or lose in the multihull fleet over the in the last few days as skippers contended with fickle, light winds associated with a bubble of high pressure over the Grand Banks and Gulf of Maine.

Alain Gautier, aboard Foncia, who led much of the race and successfully navigated between high and low pressure cell with apparent ease, lost ground in the shifting winds on the North American side of the 'Pond', and this morning was 100 miles out to sea as Francis Joyon, aboard Eure et Loir, crossed the line.

For the monohull fleet, a low pressure disturbance, which formed out of that west-east cloud band we have talked so much about recently, gave skippers plenty to remind them of previous East Atlantic trials! For young-gun Ellen MacArthur, however, some clever thinking and quick reactions on her part saved her from sailing directly under the low and losing her wind (read her account below).

Looking at the weather models on Virtual Spectator, however, it seems that the system was too big to simply sail away from, and that Ellen missed the centre of this depression because it quickly moved eastwards and intensified behind her. (Don't fret Ellen, we're not taking anything away from your excellent sailing and tactical decision-making ability!)

It seems the monohull leaders won't escape the next package in store for them: That Grand Banks High. From the weather models, it looks like moving right on top of them and slowly advancing to the east. There's no advantage to sailing north or south right now. Just pick the wind shifts and keep a clear head.

However, if you look at what is taking place just west of the Great Lakes, you will see what next weather system is in store for these hardy skippers. A big low pressure cell, with lots of moisture, is grinding into shape and moving towards the eastern seaboard. This low is being fueled by Hurricane Bud, off the west coast of Mexico, and looks like it could pack a punch. Its cold front is expected to break away from its tropical moisture source over the next 24-36 hours and will move over the coast late on Saturday.

Skippers who can position themselves to best take advantage of the south-westerlies prior to the front and the north-westerlies after will gain an upper hand.


This Atlantic loop shows the west-east cloud band fading away while heavy rains develop over the US mid-west, thanks to a developing low west of the Great Lakes. As an aside ... See that big thunderstorm exploding over the west coast of Africa? That is the kind of thing that gives birth to Atlantic hurricanes. This one fades away over the tropical Atlantic, but check Intellicast's animation regularly to view more of these fantastic phenomenons. 


Thar she blows: A big great plains whopper with its roots in the moist upper atmosphere off the west coast of  Mexico. Hurricane Bud is throwing lots of energy high into the sky down there and the low pressure cell to the north is having a real good feed. What happens to this system between now and Saturday night, when its cold front is expected to cross the coast, will be of high interest to skippers trying to win the TRANSAT.

Image courtesy of Yahoo! and WSI Corp.


This composite cloud/pressure map courtesy of Intellicast, shows the west-east cloud band beginning to fade away, the Grand Banks High strengthen and to the left - west of the Great Lakes - a warm front associated with a developing low. The cold front that follows this system could make or break the leaders of the monohull fleet. 


Marine forecast for New England Waters

330 AM EDT WED 14 JUN

NEW ENGLAND CONTINENTAL SHELF AND SLOPE WATERS FROM 25 NM OFFSHORE TO THE HAGUE LINE...EXCEPT TO ONE THOUSAND FATHOMS S OF NEW ENGLAND. 

SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRES OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL DRIFT E...WITH THE RIDGE EXTENDING BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WATERS THROUGH TODAY. 

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WATERS FROM THE S TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE WATERS THU.

GULF OF MAINE TO THE HAGUE LINE .

TODAY...SE WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT. .TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING S 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. .

THU...S WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. VSBY OCCASIONALLY BELOW 1 NM IN RAIN AND FOG.

GEORGES BANK ... FROM THE NORTHEAST CHANNEL TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL INCLUDING THE WATERS EAST OF CAPE COD...TO THE HAGUE LINE .

TODAY... NE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT BECOMING E TO SE 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. 

TONIGHT...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. RAIN AND FOG DEVELOPING LATE...WITH VSBY LOWERING BELOW 1 NM. .

THU...SE TO S WINDS 10 TO 15 KT INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. VSBY OCCASIONALLY BELOW 1 NM IN RAIN AND FOG...BECOMING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH IMPROVING VSBY. 

SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...FROM THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO HUDSON CANYON INCLUDING THE WATERS SOUTH OF MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET ISLAND...OUT TO ONE THOUSAND FATHOMS .

TODAY...E TO SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS. 

TONIGHT...SE WINDS 10 TO 15 KT. SEAS 2 TO 4 FT. VSBY OCCASIONALLY BELOW 1 NM IN RAIN AND FOG. .

THU...WINDS BECOMING S TO SW 15 TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 5 FT. RAIN AND FOG BECOMING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH VSBY IMPROVING. 

MARINE EXTENDED OUTLOOK ... THU NIGHT THROUGH SUN... 

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT N OF THE WATERS THU NIGHT.

A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL CONTINUE S OF THE WATERS THROUGH SUN. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW LATE SAT...AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUN. MODERATE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SAT NIGHT AND SUN...OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED.

WINDS LEGEND. LIGHT...20 KT OR LESS. MODERATE...21 TO 33 KT. GALE...34 TO 47 KT. STORM...48 KT OR MORE.


Team Kingfisher and Ellen MacArthur report:

June 13: "Like a school kid with her first gold star, a very content Ellen MacArthur called in during the night to explain how she had managed at the 2030 GMT poll, a 75 mile lead over SILL (since reduced to 39 miles).

"' I could see this small secondary depression forming just to our south
yesterday afternoon. I monitored it continuously, visually with the band of
cloud, by Weather Trac (satelite photos) and by the internet weather sites.
At one point I took what might be considered an unfavourable track to the
north  - but it really paid - I got clear of the light airs associated with
the centre of this small perturbation, and was soon whistling away on a
reach at 14 knots. A couple of times I sensed I was getting too close again,
it was sucking me in, and headed further north. I could see the light patch
behind me in the distance, that was a great feeling! The wind is not solid
yet, and Bilou (SILL) has taken a few miles back in the past few hours while
we've been reaching, so the pressure is on big time again. Its given me some
more confidence though to know I made a good decision.'

"Things have been tougher since; 'I can see that Bilou (SILL) is really
pulling back up. Makes it really stressful again, I'm trying everything I
can to keep my lead, but I can see him going faster than me in these
conditions. I'm just in between spinnaker and gennaker and learning fast
which works best!'

"WHIRLPOOL continues her comeback, and at the early position poll was in fact in second place, after a very difficult and frustrating afternoon yesterday
for Jourdain (SILL) when he was stuck at the centre of the secondary low.

Updates during the day at http://www.kingfisherchallenges.com


Race Headquarters reports ...

Francis Joyon breaks 12 year old record!

The record had stood for 12 years. In 1988 Philippe Poupon Fleury Michon IX won the STAR in 10 days 09 hours 15'. But this morning, as the dawn was breaking in Newport, Rhode Island, Francis Joyon sailed his Class One trimaran Eure et Loir across the finish line to break the record. Joyon finished in 9 days, 23 hours and 21 minutes, a gain of 9 hours and 54 minutes over Poupon, and has posted a new standard for this distinguished competition.

South proves kindly for Biscuits La Trinitaine ...

Since taking his option South right from the start, Marc Guillemot (Biscuits La Trinitaine) has been the underdog to the three leaders for most of the race, despite avoiding the worst of the depressions that have afflicted the others further North. But as we arose today, Marc Guillemot has surged into 2nd place, and was just 32 miles behind Francis Joyon (Eure et Loir) when Joyon crossed the line. His speed to the finish line was reported to be twice as fast as Joyon’s. 

Speeding at an average 17.3 knots when fixed by the satellite positioning, Marc Guillemot is also the fastest boat on the water this morning heading a more intermediary route, as Joyon, further South, is making only 11.4 knots and Franck Cammas, further North, only 12 knots in comparison. Only 34 miles separates the top 3 trimarans (Alain Gautier not positioned this morning), and if the wind maintains direction from the NE, Joyon is better placed for the last sprint and 40 miles left between Nantucket island and the finish line. However the winds are not giving anything away, unpredictable and variable as ever over the American coastline. Never has a Transat been undecided so close to the finish!


Jean-Yves Bernot reports ...

June 13: The leaders in the Europe 1 New Man Star are North of a cold front stretching out Eastwards from just South of Newport and sending out small low pressure systems, which will bring Easterly winds variable in strength, timing and location.

The monohulls are leaving the centre of a low pressure, in which the winds were favourable, and now the wind returns to the North, 10 – 15 knots.

For the multihulls, a wind from the East 10 – 15 knots, with important shifts from between the NE and SE. The monohulls will be given a break from the headwinds and sail more comfortably downwind under gennaker. Nearly the good life !

14 June: The cold front comes down slightly towards the South and the High Pressure builds over New-England. Winds from ESE 10 knots near the finish. The monohulls will enter the same weather system as the multi’s with a varying wind but giving more downwind sailing.

Strategy

The 3 multihulls in the lead are a few miles apart from each other. They are under gennaker, broad-reaching, and the rankings change on each wind shift and gybe. More like an Olympic regatta.

The problem for the skippers will be to discern the wind shifts in fine detail. Weather forecasts and simulations made by Maxsea® (Routing application) will help them define their overall strategy but at the end of the day it will be a combination of tactical sense, opportunity and the talent of each skipper.

One must not forget the path over the Nantucket shoals (2 – 5m depth) which could attract any of the skippers who want to risk the short-cut over these banks.

The situation will gradually become apparent and the mono’s will watch closely how the multi’s finish as they won’t be far behind. To go North or South…this is the game now.


Race history: 

We have a full archive of daily weather notes for the Europe 1 New Man single-handed trans-Atlantic race, beginning June 4, 2000, from Plymouth, England.

 

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